Premortem Analysis – Identifying Weaknesses Before They Happen
Imagining a future event as if it has already occurred can enhance the ability to anticipate potential issues and generate more comprehensive explanations.
Introduction
Projects fail at a spectacular rate, often because people are hesitant to voice their reservations during the critical planning phase. By making it safe for team members who have concerns to speak up, you can improve a project's chances of success. One effective method to do this is the premortem analysis.
What is a Premortem Analysis?
A premortem is a proactive approach to risk management where you imagine that a project has already failed and work backwards to determine why.
This technique is based on research from 1989 by Deborah J. Mitchell, Jay Russo, and Nancy Pennington, which found that prospective hindsight—imagining that an event has already occurred—improves the ability to identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%. This method helps project teams identify risks at the outset rather than at the end.
In 1992 Gary Klein, a cognitive psychologist, invented the pre-mortem analysis technique. Klein developed this approach as a way to leverage the findings of prospective hindsight studies and create a framework to identify potential poor outcomes in decision-making processes.
What is the difference between Premortem and Postmortem Analysis?
A premortem is the hypothetical opposite of a postmortem. While a postmortem examines why a project failed after the fact, a premortem is conducted at the beginning of a project.
Instead of analyzing what went wrong after the project has failed, a premortem assumes the project has already failed and explores the potential reasons for this failure. This approach contrasts with typical risk analysis, which looks forward from the present to identify potential issues.
How to facilitate a Premortem Analysis Workshop
Assemble the Team: Gather the right people, especially those responsible for the project. Ensure the team can view the project holistically.
Explain the Process: Briefly explain the concept of a premortem and encourage participants to think creatively and candidly. This helps them to fully engage and consider all possible negative aspects.
Present the Project: Provide a clear overview of the project or decision. Ensure there are no outstanding questions.
Negative Future Consideration: Ask the team to imagine that the project has failed and to brainstorm reasons for this failure.
Collect Reasons: Have team members write down potential failure reasons independently, then gather and compile these reasons on a board.
Cluster and Organize: Group similar reasons and identify key areas for action.
Evaluate Risks: Discuss the identified risks, their potential impact, and how they might be mitigated.
Develop Strategies: Create strategies to minimize or eliminate identified risks.
Implement: Ensure that the strategies are integrated into the project plan and monitor their effectiveness.
What is the value of a Premortem Workshop?
Conducting a premortem in a workshop setting has several advantages:
Equality: All team members contribute their ideas equally.
Transparency: Concerns are discussed openly, rather than in hushed tones.
Broaden Perspectives: Gathering opinions beyond the project team increases acceptance and understanding.
Encourage Critical Thinking: The premortem fosters a culture where critical thinking is encouraged and valued.
Develop a Better Error Culture: Discussing hypothetical failures helps build a more open and proactive approach to errors.
Final Thoughts
Premortem analysis is a powerful tool for improving project outcomes. By envisioning failure and identifying potential issues before they arise, teams can develop strategies to mitigate risks and enhance their chances of success. Conducting a premortem can be an engaging and effective way to prepare for potential challenges, ultimately reducing the need for a painful postmortem.
Have you tried the Pre-Mortem method before? How did it work for you?
Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below!
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Great explanation about Prospective Hindsight:
https://www.whiteark.com.au/thought-leadership/prospective-hindsight-and-the-pre-mortem
Back to the future: Temporal perspective in the explanation of events https://www.academia.edu/5699811/Back_to_the_future_Temporal_perspective_in_the_explanation_of_events